Gas and Bombs: West will strike Syrian Military

A month ago America’s top military officials were warning about the very real problems of war with Syria. It would not only be expensive in military terms, but also in financial (estimated to cost $1bn a day). But recent events, the suspected chemical attack in suburbs of Damascus, put the Obama administration in a tricky spot. The so called “red line” has been crossed, the Geneva II process is going nowhere, and the President already lacks credibility – a policy of silent diplomacy that leads nowhere is worse than a policy that is at least seen to be trying to move in the right direction.

Given all of this, the Obama administration is now looking at a Kosovo model intervention, based on an Obama version of the coalition of the willing – i.e. don’t use NATO, but pull in Britain, France and anyone else who maybe useful for such a task. The Obama administration will no doubt wait for the UN to leave, and then strike by the end of the week. A one off strike to send a clear message to the regime (no matter what the UN comes back with). Such an approach will bring the West squarely into confrontation with the Assad-Hezbollah-Iranian crescent. What remains to be seen, is if this will deter the Assad regime, or be the start of a much larger intervention …


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