What does the Kidnap and release of Ali Zeidan tells us about Libya?

The kidnap and release of Ali Zeidan tells us what we already knew about the current situation in Libya.  The security situation in the country is deeply precarious and “revolutionary” militias are ultimately in power.  They out number, by size and firepower, the official police and army, and have a limited and tenuous loyalty to the countries institutions. This is a serious problem, which combined with the presence of terrorist organisations like AQIM in the country, raises serious challenges for North African, European, and the American government.

The revolutionary group that kidnapped Zeidan argued that because the Libyan government agreed to the US violation of sovereignty, when they captured Abu Anas al-Liby on Saturday, they were acting as an “Anti-crime agency” against a PM they regard as violating the law.  The fact that they could take him from the Corinthia Hotel, which is supposed to be one of the most secure locations in the country is deeply problematic and tells us who really has power.  This is not a government capable of protecting itself, never mind maintaing security and law and order across the country.

I was asked earlier today to comment on Channel NewsAsia, about what this means for foreigners in the country, who Zeidan is now seeking to reassure.  This is deeply problematic as it sends a clear signal that the security situation post-Bengazi attacks has not improved.  (I’ve been told foreigners can get around the country for the most part, but low profile is the way forward).  For details on how to build Libya’s security sector, people should see Frederic Wehrey and Peter Cole’s policy outlook here.

I’ve also been asked by a lot of media outlets about the prospects for democracy in the country.  The thing people need to have in mind is that; when a revolution and international intervention remove a government they leave a political and security space open within that country.  As a new government fills this space the international community asks them to do two opposing things 1) centralise power to form a new state; 2) move towards democracy.  This is asking them to centralise and decentralise power at the same time, and this is all in a scenario where there is no security.  Therefore to move to democracy, first steps need to be centralising state power and the maintenance of security across the country.  This should be done in conjunction with a truth and reconciliation dialogue initiative.  It is only by both securing and reconstructing the state and coming to terms with the past and forming a consensus on the future that progress on deepening democratic institutions can be made.


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